So this weekend I decided to fix it, by removing the flywheel, sleeving it with a speedi-sleeve as per Itchyfeet's example, and changing the seal just to be on the safe side. I'd already bought a speedi-sleeve and cut it down with a Dremel mounted in my drill stand.
I got the gearbox out ok, and when I took the flywheel off it certainly didn't look like the case joint had leaked - it definitely looks like the main seal was the culprit. So I cleaned up the flywheel, applied some Dirko sealant, heated the speedi-sleeve up in the oven to help it slip on, tapped it down so it was below the leading edge, and removed the tear-off flange. So far so good.

Then I fitted the new seal and put a smear of assembly lube on it so that I could check where it was going to ride on the sleeve - I tapped the seal in a little further (~1.5mm underflush) so that the seal was nice and central on the speedi-sleeve. I torqued up the flywheel bolts then fitted the clutch.
And then it all went horribly wrong. One of the clutch bolts gave way before it got to 25Nm - must have been fatigued from previous uses. I don't recall whether they were new when I fitted the clutch last summer or whether I re-used them.

I don't have a spare set, and it's Sunday, so that was the end of my hopes of getting it all back together today. So I spent the rest of the afternoon doing a proper clean-up underneath the engine. My engine was pristine when it went in last summer, but a small oil leak from the main seal leads to splattered oil *everywhere*.